2023 NFL Tremendous Wild Card Weekend odds, picks: Jaguars pull off upset over Chargers; Cowboys survive Tom Brady | Technoscoob

The mad sprint to Arizona for Tremendous Bowl LVII begins now. The playoff discipline is about and we’re on the doorstep of Tremendous Wild Card Weekend within the NFL, which is anticipated to kick off the postseason with a bang. 

Earlier than we dive into the following stage of the 2022 marketing campaign, let’s take a look at a number of the issues we have realized all through the common season. It is value declaring that this was a historic season for the Below and Underdogs. The Below hit 55% of the time this 12 months, which is one of the best for the reason that 1991 season. In the meantime, canine of 4+ factors had their greatest season since 1987. And for those who thought video games being performed on the highway or at handmade a distinction this 12 months, you would be flawed. House and highway groups went precisely 50% this 12 months, proudly owning a 133-133-5 ATS file. 

We’ll take these developments under consideration as we sit up for the start of the postseason the place we’ll attempt to end up a bit higher than we did within the common season the place I completed 41-45-4 in my locks of the week. 

Prepared or not, right here comes the NFL playoffs! 

2022 file


Common season
Locks of the Week ATS
: 41-45-4
ATS: 125-137-9
ML: 172-97-2

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook

Featured Sport | San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco owned this matchup all through the common season, sweeping Seattle and outscoring it 48-20. Not solely that, however the Niners had 754 yards of complete offense to the Seahawks’ 493 yards, and San Fan compelled 4 turnovers. Kyle Shanahan’s protection has additionally performed Geno Smith properly; the quarterback has an 87.4 passer ranking in opposition to the 49ers this season and a 102.3 passer ranking in opposition to all different opponents. 

Whereas Brock Purdy is a digital unknown on this playoff setting, he’ll be capable to lean on a stout protection and Christian McCaffrey, who may very well be in for an enormous day. Seattle’s run protection is among the many worst within the NFL, and McCaffrey has dominated this staff all through his profession. In three video games in opposition to the Seahawks, the again is averaging 183.3 yards from scrimmage and 1.7 touchdowns. If he comes anyplace near these averages, Purdy will not need to do an excessive amount of. 

Oh, and for those who’re nervous about laying double-digit factors, double-digit underdogs are 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS within the playoffs the final 10 years. 

Projected rating: 49ers 28, Seahawks 17
The choose: 49ers -9.5

Featured Sport | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers

There are certain to be a few upsets this weekend and I will circle the Jags pulling off the win at dwelling over the Chargers as one in all them. Personally, that is the matchup I am most enthusiastic about this weekend. You could have two of the brightest younger quarterbacks duking it out of their first-ever playoff video games. These two groups did meet earlier this season and Trevor Lawrence outplayed Justin Herbert by throwing three touchdowns and registering a 115.5 passer ranking in a 38-10 victory. 

Whereas Jacksonville’s offense was a bit up and down in opposition to the Titans final week as they clinched the AFC South, the protection was stellar. And it wasn’t a one-off both. Over the past 5 weeks, Jacksonville’s protection has held opponents to simply 15.6 factors per recreation. To its credit score, L.A. has been simply pretty much as good over that very same stretch permitting 15 factors per recreation. So with their quarterbacks and defenses enjoying roughly the identical, what is the tiebreaker? Teaching. And I will gladly facet with Doug Pederson over Brandon Staley right here. 

Projected rating: Jaguars 27, Chargers 23
The choose: Jaguars +2

Featured Sport | Buffalo Payments vs. Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa is not going to play on this playoff opener as Mike McDaniel introduced on Wednesday that the quarterback has nonetheless not been cleared by medical doctors after struggling one other concussion just a few weeks in the past. Which means, it’s going to both be Teddy Bridgewater — who’s coping with a dislocated finger in his throwing hand — or rookie Skyler Thompson. Irrespective of who’s finally below middle, the scoring ceiling for Miami has fallen dramatically and Buffalo ought to win this recreation somewhat simply. 

With this line nonetheless sitting below two touchdowns, I will lean within the Payments’ path and lay the 13 factors, however it’s hardly a lock merely given how huge that quantity is. Nonetheless, as I discussed above within the Seahawks-Niners part, double-digit canine are simply 3-8 ATS over the past decade. 

In the meantime, Josh Allen has by no means misplaced to the Dolphins at dwelling (5-0) in his profession and the Payments are averaging 32.6 factors per recreation in opposition to Miami with him because the starter. Buffalo has additionally been a robust wager at dwelling within the postseason, traditionally. Because the 1970 merger, the Payments are 12-1 ATS at dwelling and personal a +13.6 level per recreation differential. 

Projected rating: Payments 33, Dolphins 17
The choose: Payments -13

Featured Sport | Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

I will be sincere, I am a bit nervous about this choose. For weeks I’ve been fading the Vikings, calling them idiot’s gold, and saying they’re ripe to be plucked on this opening spherical of the playoffs. Whereas I nonetheless really feel that manner and can take the factors with the Giants and anticipate New York to win on the Moneyline, this feels just like the chalk play, which supplies me some trepidation. 

Nonetheless, it is exhausting for me to lean on a staff that’s the first membership in NFL historical past to have at the least 12 wins and a unfavourable level differential. Minnesota has been phenomenal in one-score video games this season, boasting an 11-0 file. A type of wins got here in opposition to these Giants, however it’s value declaring that they had been lacking each of their beginning corners for that recreation and will have each wholesome for this matchup this weekend. New York was one of the best staff to wager on this season with a 13-4 ATS file and Brian Daboll is arguably one of the best coach in these playoffs. He formulates a plan that continues to focus on the ability set of Daniel Jones, and DC Wink Martindale deploys a protection that provides this banged-up Vikings O-line matches en path to the upset. 

Projected rating: Giants 28, Vikings 24
The choose: Giants +3

Featured Sport | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

It is unclear if Lamar Jackson will play on this recreation on the time this put up is being written, however we’ll assume that he tries to provide it a go. Even when Jackson is on the market, it is protected to imagine he is not 100% and is about to face a Bengals protection that’s no joke, rating simply outdoors the highest 10 in DVOA. It is also value declaring that Jackson hasn’t loved a lot success within the playoffs as soon as he is gotten there. In his profession, Jackson is 1-3 within the playoffs with 4 complete touchdowns and 7 turnovers. 

Whereas Cincy’s protection ought to be capable to deal with Jackson or whoever is below middle for them, the actual matchup on this recreation would be the Bengals offense in opposition to this stout Ravens protection. Since Week 9, the Bengals have the third-best scoring offense within the NFL, whereas the Ravens have the second-best scoring protection. One thing might want to give there and I imagine it’s going to be Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense that finally wins out. Final week, Burrow accomplished simply 59% of his passes in opposition to this protection for 215 yards and a landing, however the Bengals offense nonetheless put up 20 factors. I do not anticipate Burrow to have back-to-back sluggish video games, and I am not so assured Baltimore can get north of 21 factors with a restricted Jackson, particularly if they’re compelled to start out Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown. 

Projected rating: Bengals 27, Ravens 17
The choose: Ravens -7

Featured Sport | Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys

I believe the favored play by the general public will likely be to fade the Cowboys on this spot, particularly after that dud within the regular-season finale in opposition to Washington the place they had been enjoying their starters and nonetheless misplaced. Nonetheless, with this quantity under the sector objective threshold, I will fade that consensus and lean towards Dallas. When firing on all cylinders, the Cowboys are one of many extra gifted groups within the NFL. 

If their protection can get its head on straight, there’s a path to slowing down Tom Brady. The Cowboys utilized probably the most strain within the NFL this season. To Brady and the Bucs’ credit score, they allowed the fewest quantity of strain, however after they did strain Brady he had the fourth-worst passer ranking within the league. Particularly, the important thing matchup on this recreation may very well be Micah Parsons in opposition to Bucs left deal with Donovan Smith. Parsons led the NFL in pressures this season, whereas Smith ranked forty fourth amongst offensive tackles in move blocking, per Professional Soccer Focus. 

On the opposite facet of issues, Dak Prescott might want to drastically cut back his turnovers. If he can do this, and the Dallas protection can get some strain on Brady, the Cowboys ought to be capable to survive. 

Projected rating: Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 21
The choose: Cowboys -2.5

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